The Bitcoin Layer

The Bitcoin Layer

A Much Needed On-Chain Update with Checkonchain

Our fourth collaboration with the Checkonchain team

Augustine Carrasco's avatar
Nik Bhatia's avatar
James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
Augustine Carrasco
,
Nik Bhatia
, and
James Check (Checkmatey)
Nov 21, 2025
∙ Paid

Dear Readers

We are excited to once again partner up with the Checkonchain team, and bring you a much wider perspective from who we deem to be the best on-chain analysts out there. Go check them out!

Checkonchain Newsletter

As per usual, we’ll start with their analysis and then move on to ours. So, without further ado, enjoy our fourth collaboration together!


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‘You can’t trade the market you want, only the one that’s in front of you’ — Doc Severson

G’day Folks,

We’re back with the latest edition of our collaborative analysis with The Bitcoin Layer team, this week we’re going to be addressing the obvious topic; ugly red price candles.

For the first time since June 2023, the year-on-year return for Bitcoin is negative, and as given we’re trading at $86.5K, the price is now down -7% in 2025 YTD.

This is clearly not the market any of us want to see, but it is indeed the market that is in front of us, and one we started mentally preparing for in mid-October.

In today’s post

  • The Checkonchain team will provide a market update on both the onchain and derivatives front, assessing the damage, and looking for likely zones of bear market support.

  • The Bitcoin Layer team will provide their perspective on the liquidity conditions that are shaping the macro backdrop, including an essential money markets and Fed primer.

Let’s get stuck in, as we clearly have a lot to cover in today’s analysis.


📈 Reminder: you can find the charts from our articles on the Checkonchain Charting Website, and a guide in our Charts Tutorial Video.


Premium Members will find the TL:DR summary, video update and the rest of the written post below. Consider upgrading to premium today to unlock the rest of the content!


Disclaimer: This article is general in nature, and is for informational, and entertainment purposes only, and it shall not be relied upon for any investment or financial decisions.


TL;DR

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James Check (Checkmatey)'s avatar
A guest post by
James Check (Checkmatey)
Ex-civil engineer, turned Bitcoin analyst after falling down the onchain analysis rabbit hole. I am the co-founder of checkonchain, co-author of Cointime Economics, and previously built and led the analyst team at glassnode.
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