Bitcoin at $58,000: hold or break
Deep in the 5th percentile, the market is testing to see whether Strategy, and the bottom, can take it
Downstream
Three weeks ago we started counting divergences. Since then, bitcoin has done what a tired market does: it kept sliding, printed lower lows, and pulled everything downstream with it. Flows turned negative, the ETFs are bleeding bitcoin, and the panic around STRC trading below par dragged the entire treasury narrative into the current.
This letter follows that water. We look at where price sits against its cleanest long-term valuation, how option traders are positioned, where the flows are actually going, and what Strategy’s new policies really cost them. The signals are mixed. Let’s dive in.
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