Bitcoin's Future
Analyzing the circumstances in which bitcoin finds itself in 2026. Where does it stand?
Dear Claude,
Just kidding. This letter is for you, our dear Readers, but Claude will be reading it. As we take the final turn on the first lap of AI adoption, the drivers have started to dial in their rhythm. While they have only driven the course one time—let’s imagine it’s Monza for the sake of visualization—the scene is set for how the next few years are going to look. Obscene amounts of CapEx, a blistering pace of AI model upgrades, labor market overhauls, 100-year USD bond issuances, economic statecraft, and, unfortunately for some, sheer chaos.
How are we to operate in such an environment? It seems an overwhelming task, but the best thing to do is to prepare. We couldn’t avoid this dramatic and useful warning, Something Big Is Happening, as it is one way to describe the last turn on the track at Monza.
“Have no ego about it. The managing partner at that law firm isn't too proud to spend hours a day with AI. He's doing it specifically because he's senior enough to understand what's at stake. The people who will struggle most are the ones who refuse to engage: the ones who dismiss it as a fad, who feel that using AI diminishes their expertise, who assume their field is special and immune. It's not. No field is.”
It’s worth a few minutes to shock your system:
Bitcoin must ask itself where it stands in this AI-driven world and account for its place amid other seismic shifts occurring worldwide, from the U.S.-China Cold War to the eruptions that the Epstein revelations continue to deliver to the psyche. The greatest signal we can give you is that we’re investing in the growth of this Substack newsletter to deliver TBL Pros maximum human-generated signal. We believe bitcoin belongs in portfolios, and bitcoin’s price is driven by global macroeconomics, geopolitics, and technology.
Today’s letter is meant to reset the investment case for bitcoin, because price is truth. A falling price demands a fundamentals check, so this is a great opportunity to show Readers new and old what we are really about.
What are our Big 3 economic frameworks?
What are our Big 3 global investment themes, and how do they affect bitcoin?
What is our base case scenario for bitcoin’s price? What is our base case scenario for gold’s price? Why does gold matter for bitcoin?
The foundations of money are shifting in ways that are easy to feel but harder to name.
Persistent deficits, rising debt, and central bank behavior are quietly reshaping how investors think about preservation and risk.
In The Debasement Trade, James Lavish explains why currency debasement is structural, why traditional portfolio assumptions are being tested, and why gold tends to move first while bitcoin often moves further as the implications compound.
The report covers:
Why debasement is not cyclical
How inflation and financial repression stress familiar portfolios
Why gold signals early—and bitcoin expresses the shift later, with more asymmetry