Dear readers,
The Bitcoin Layer is two years old today! We appreciate your readership and can’t thank you enough for your continued support since we began our mission to narrate the transition to a more bitcoin-centric monetary system. If you’d like to support the research we do, the team we have assembled, and the videos we create, there’s no better way than to become a monthly subscriber.
Confirmation bias is a doozy. As rates analysts, it’s our job to flag curve inversions as recession indicators up to three years in advance. Now that we’re about 18 months into the current instance of 2s10s inversion, it’s almost impossible to unsee the end-cycle dynamics in the data, such as contractionary US manufacturing, German recession, and Chinese monetary easing. Interestingly, policymakers, instead of having trouble escaping negative economic news, are quite comfortable in their position. This sets up for the next few months of Fed and ECB inaction, while markets once again regain their form as discounting mechanisms. Let’s just say summer is over.
Invest in Bitcoin with confidence at River.com/TBL
Securely buy Bitcoin with 100% full-reserve custody, enjoy zero fees on recurring orders, and even buy a hosted Bitcoin miner, completely hassle-free.
Tax receipts
Federal tax receipts are in severe contraction. This chart stood out to us yesterday—notice the shaded regions are recessions, each of the last three of which corresponded with similar declines: