Bulls Are Bracing for $45,000 While the Data Says It's Becoming Less Likely
Our framework was never fitted to psychology, yet it lands exactly where your timeline does
Are we entering Disbelief?
Bitcoin is back in ‘Disbelief’ territory, at least according to our framework. What amazes me is that this framework is derived purely from data: technicals, on-chain metrics, derivatives, flows, and risk appetite. Yet it aligns remarkably well with current sentiment. The Valuation and Trend framework was not fitted to psychological labels, but its output appears to map closely to the market states popularized by the Wall Street Cheat Sheet.
The data shows that the current readings resemble those from periods when market psychology matched the ‘Disbelief’ phase. And when I open X and scroll through my timeline, ideally not for too long, the dominant feeling I get is Disbelief. The bulls who remained convinced throughout the entire decline that price was about to recover recently flipped to, “We’ll probably reach $45,000 before we bottom,” following the latest sell-off toward $58,000. That is always possible, of course, but our data suggests it is becoming less likely, not more likely.
Before we move on, notice the Bitcoin State Grid below. The current trend score is almost identical to where it stood three months ago, when bitcoin traded at $78,000. I would even go so far as to say that a new move to $78,000 would probably put us in ‘Hope’, supported by a genuine trend reversal. The reason I say this is that, in bitcoin’s history, a move above the 200-day moving average has never been followed by a rejection all the way back toward the lows. Each previous occurrence marked the start of a new bull market.
The one thing that gives reason for caution, or maybe even concern, is the combination of bitcoin being near resistance and TBL Liquidity flipping to ‘Sell’ at this very moment. If you haven’t already, please check out Nik’s most recent letter on this topic.
TL;DR
The Valuation and Trend framework, built purely on data, currently lands on ‘Disbelief’. That matches the timeline: bulls who held conviction all the way down now call for $45,000. Our data suggests that is becoming less likely, not more.
Price action stays constructive: the market defended the $64,200 magnet every time, and price now faces the Point-of-Control around $66,900. Above that, the 200-day moving average near $73,800 is the final boss of the downtrend.
The bullish overall Deribit PCR is exaggerated by one expiry: 31-JUL-26 prints 0.28 with 34% of all open interest (145,000 BTC, of which 113,281 BTC in calls). The rest of 2026 sits at 0.55-0.59, historically neutral for bitcoin.
The 30-DTE 25-delta skew recovery that was missing two weeks ago has begun. Skew is now less negative than when bitcoin traded at $80,000, echoing the 2022 bottom pattern.
The ETF bleeding stopped: after roughly 130,000 BTC of outflow in two months, holdings grew 14,000 BTC in two weeks and the Coinbase Premium turned positive. Not big inflows, but seller exhaustion, at least for now.
