Bulls Riding the Liquidity Wave: TBL Weekly #142
Dear Readers,
After a remarkable start to May for risk assets all across the board (especially for bitcoin), the bullish pulse of the market is palpable. Here’s a chart of the S&P 500’s performance YTD as we approach the end of the first half of 2025:
There are two things worth noting from this chart. Firstly, notice just how sensitive the market has been toward White House announcements, with all major apexes taking place on some type of announcement. Secondly, and perhaps most importantly, the S&P 500 managed to reclaim its positive return stance last week—that was until fiscal worries about Big-Beautiful-Bill-induced deficits started spreading. Bessent came out today and said that “as growth accelerates, [he] is not worried about the US debt dynamics.” The tune has now changed from ‘let’s reduce spending’ to ‘let’s push growth higher.’
Overall, however, risk appetite abounds. Bulls are quite evidently making a comeback. When looking at AAII bull-bear spread (a survey that asks individual investors about their market expectations six months from now), we are seeing bulls rebound.
Notice from the chart that, over the past 10 years, a spread between 20 to 30% (red band) has signaled a market peak, and a reading between -20 to -30% (green band) has signaled a bottom. Since the tariff-pause correction, the survey bottomed and is now making its way back to bull territory.
Another chart that we would like to show is sourced from you guys directly (go to the bottom of this article to participate in the survey)—something we are coining the TBL Pro Indicator:
As you can see from the indicator, the current spread between TBL Pro bulls and bears lies at approximately 58.9% (= % of TBL Pro Bulls – % of TBL Pro Bears).
Needless to say, even you guys are bullish on risk assets, and for good reason. In today’s TBL Weekly, we will look at:
Our TBL Liquidity’s expected tailwinds for risk assets.
Our outlook on US rates and the dollar.
Economic factors guiding our bullishness on the US economy.
Bitcoin’s lack of reaction to macro
So, without further ado, let’s dive into TBL Weekly #142!
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Weekly Analysis
TBL Liquidity-Induced Tailwinds
As it stands today, TBL Liquidity is at its second-highest yearly level of the past five years:
And it’s only the second because 2021 was higher but decreasing:
After slicing the past 5 years, we notice two extremely important things that are feeding our overall narrative for risk assets in 2025…