Emergency chart pack: when in doubt, zoom out

OPEC+ cuts production on a weekend. Weekend emergency measures have become the norm in 2023. Time for a weekend chart pack then.

Dear readers,

As we transition from Q1 to Q2, major asset classes are in the black. Bonds are up 3%, stocks are up 7%, and bitcoin is up 70% (insert any appropriate emoji stream here). So it’s all good right? Everything is fine now? In my experience, the only way to truly tell the longer-term story is through price study, and the only way to study price is to start by zooming out. “When in doubt, zoom out,” they say.

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Monthly candles

I usually chart in daily and weekly candles. This gives me a six-month to five-year sense of what is happening to the price—very helpful in identifying the major forces employed in each market. But sometimes there is so much noise, the only way to quiet it is by examining behavior one month at a time instead of one day at a time. There is value in that, and I hope to demonstrate that this Sunday morning before global futures markets open in a few hours and introduce a new April monthly candle.

10-year Treasuries

These charts will be presented with the bare minimum: one or two trendlines and/or horizontal lines of resistance and support. Starting with the 10-year Treasury yield, I’d first like to direct your eyes to the trendline and walloping bear market of 2022: