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Macro Update
Here are this video’s topics of discussion:
I start by sharing what four weeks teaching my bitcoin and AI course at USC taught me, and what my students said stuck with them most.
I then walk through TBL Pulse and our liquidity signal in detail, including where our confirmed dots stand right now.
I move on to what the on-chain data is telling me about where bitcoin sits today, and why I have been stacking.
I close on the global macro picture, from the cooling inflation print to the pressure building in the corporate bond market to a dollar story out of Asia that almost nobody is talking about.
Okay, on to today’s 66-minute video and TLDR summary.
If you prefer watching these videos on YouTube, we have attached the YouTube link under the TL;DR Section.
Video’s TL;DR
With the desks quiet during the World Cup, our TBL Liquidity Index, cycle, and indicator are all flatlining near zero. We confirmed a green dot on June 19 (~63k, roughly where bitcoin trades today), an unconfirmed red dot reappeared about recently, and we are approaching our signal-plus-14-days window to decide whether it confirms. The signal is weak precisely because everything is range-bound.
Our TBL Liquidity strategy is up 23% year to date versus bitcoin buy-and-hold down 28%, an outperformance of over 50%. The mechanism is simple and unleveraged: own bitcoin by default, rotate to T-bills on a sell signal, rotate back on a buy. It is 100% exogenous, built on four pillars: the banking system, the treasury market, treasury volatility, and the dollar index, and we are not changing the methodology now that it is live.
Bitcoin is sitting in the stacker zone. MVRV is in the 20th percentile at 1.19, price has tagged levels below its 200-week moving average, and Johan’s State Grid has us in the capitulation zone with both valuation low and trend negative. This is deep value territory, and it is why I have personally been stacking since bitcoin went below 80K.
The derivatives overhang is the thing bitcoin cannot escape. Johan’s read is that the derivatives market has been so bearish, with heavy put buying and negative skew, that price struggles to recover. A lot of those bearish puts were rolled forward into August, so the overhang may persist over the next few weeks.
Inflation cooled, and the market noticed. CPI year over year dropped from above 4% to 3.5%, PPI fell, and month-over-month CPI went negative. That took July and August Fed hike expectations off the table and eased both yields and the dollar at the margin.
The hyperscaler bond squeeze is a story I am looking into. Roughly 79% of the sector’s bonds issued since early 2025 are trading at wider spreads than their first day, stacking up capital losses. Meta, Alphabet, Amazon, Nvidia, and SpaceX are all borrowing heavily to fund AI capex because cash flow cannot cover the build-out, and that supply is pinching liquidity in both corporate bonds and Treasuries. I do believe they get funded in the end.
Apple caught Nvidia, and SpaceX slipped below its IPO valuation. Nvidia and the rest of the chip complex sold off on this bond pressure plus rotation into the broader market, which is what let Apple overtake it as the largest company in the world.
A dollar squeeze is showing up in India. The RBI is offering overseas Indians attractive, leveraged, near-guaranteed dollar returns through the FCNR deposit scheme to pull in $70 to 80 billion. This is a eurodollar operation and a sign of a genuine global dollar shortage. I am watching India, Korea, and Japan for where an Asian financial crisis could develop.
International stress is broad. The KOSPI is correcting hard after tripling over the past year but is still above its opening level, USD/JPY is at its weakest since 1990, and the DXY keeps grinding higher, a tight financial condition felt everywhere except US stocks.
Bitcoin versus gold keeps grinding higher. Gold is trading weak with a possible $3,500 target, while the bitcoin/gold ratio bottomed in February and sits around 16. A move back to a 40 multiple would put bitcoin near 160k. That is not a price prediction, but it belongs in your range of outcomes.
Disclaimer
The TBL Model Portfolio, TBL Liquidity Indicator, and all TBL research outputs reflect Nik Bhatia and team’s analytical positioning for the macro and bitcoin environment. They are published for educational purposes only and are not investment advice, not a solicitation to buy or sell securities, and not a recommendation tailored to any individual’s portfolio. The Bitcoin Layer is not a registered investment advisor and does not manage client money. Please consult a professional financial advisor and conduct independent due diligence before making investment decisions.
