It's All One Trade: TBL Weekly #126
Good morning Readers!
At the moment, we are entrenched in our framework, and we think that the current lot in the White House is as well. To boost stocks, TBL Liquidity must be supported, which means an expanding banking system, easier rates, a softer dollar, and calming inflation which softens bond volatility. We see some tailwinds within each component, and we’ll unpack them individually as we go. You can say all you want about Donald Trump, but one thing is certain: he is an entertainer. From alt-coins to executive orders to AI negotiations to tariffs, he keeps markets moving almost 24/7. So, despite the lack of economic releases this past week, we had no shortage of tradable news (so much so that even the Fed was pushed out of the spotlight for a minute there). Among the news moving markets were his highly anticipated protectionist policies—policies that his 2024 campaign relied so heavily on. In what is only the first week of this new administration, we are seeing immediate price action in foreign exchange markets on any mention of tariffs. This is why today’s article focuses heavily on the US dollar and its centricity to how we’re thinking about markets. Here’s what we will cover today:
Dollar price action
TBL Liquidity, stocks and bitcoin price action
The Fed
So, without further ado, grab a coffee, and let’s dive into TBL Weekly #126
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Weekly Monitor
