Mean Median Mode: The $100,000 Stalemate
Our bi-weekly quantitative risk report for TBL Pros: November 12th, 2025 Edition
Dear Readers,
Welcome back to another edition of Mean Median Mode—a quantitative risk report summarizing bitcoin price analysis and global macro narratives to position investors and bitcoin watchers with the data that matters. So, without further ado, here’s our latest risk report.
Table of Contents
Bitcoin: Technical Analysis
TBL Liquidity Analysis
Bitcoin: Correlation Analysis
Bitcoin: On-Chain Analytics
US Rates Analysis
Fed Watch & Money Markets
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Bitcoin: Technical Analysis
High Timeframe
During our last risk report two weeks ago, bitcoin was trading around $113,000, which at that time was equal to the Short-Term Holder Cost Basis (arrow number 1 on chart below).
We wrote:
“The previous candle did close above it, but the price could still face rejection here. If we see one full candle form above the STH CB, it would imply that the price is being accepted above that level again because bears would have had three days to sell into that strength but still weren’t able to move the needle.”
What happened next is exactly why we said we wanted to see a full candle (three days of trading) above the STH CB, not just a close. The level was rejected with a bearish engulfing candle, a sign that the downtrend would continue. And it did, a few days later, the price dropped from $110,000 to $98,000.
There could be a silver lining to all of this. It might be turning out to be a textbook pullback for bitcoin in this epoch. Price went to the level we had identified earlier, hit both market-dividing metrics, and bounced from there, leaving two clear wicks (arrow number 2 on chart below). We will provide more arguments for why a local bottom could be forming in the On-chain Analysis section.
