This letter is about putting bitcoin in perspective compared to what’s been happening with gold lately, and trying to figure out what that signal could mean. Because of the recent bitcoin price action, we’ve also included some extra charts and analysis in this letter to keep TBL Pros informed about the latest price developments.
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Situation report
Let’s kick off with a short situation report. Friday was a scary day for a lot of people, and sentiment on X can best be described as ‘fearful’. Bitcoin dropped below its 200-day moving average and was heading toward the high-volume node we identified earlier. Bears were feasting, and bitcoin targets of $16,000 started popping up in our feed. Since then, bitcoin looks to be recovering well, and the drop toward $103,000 seems to have been a liquidity grab for now. The HVN acted as support, and the price is currently back above $110,000.
While this price action feels good, it’s too early to celebrate. We’re still in a short-term downtrend. To establish an uptrend again, we should reclaim the on-chain level around $113,400 and the technical level of $115,000. Until then, stay cautious and prepare mentally for more downside. It may not come, but don’t get bummed out if it does. We’re not out of the woods yet.