Reality Check Chart Pack
Markets are heating up. Here are the 18 charts to watch.
Dear readers,
Can you feel it? That tremble is volatility waking up from a sleepy summer. Now that the dog days are over, portfolio managers are returning from vacation to find some serious alarm bells in the price action. We take a trip around US rates, FX, global rates, commodities, volatility, stocks, and bitcoin to set up the rest of the year—we have a feeling drama awaits.
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Today’s Charts
US Treasury 30-year yields
US Treasury 10-year yields
US Treasury 10-year REAL yields
US Treasury 10-year INFLATION BREAKEVEN yields
US Treasury 2s10s curve
US Treasury 2-year yields
US Treasury 3-month yields
USDCNH (Chinese yuan)
Dollar Index (DXY)
EURUSD (Euro)
USDJPY (Japanese yen)
Germany 10-year yields
UK 30-year yields
Gold
Crude Oil
VIX (volatility)
S&P 500
Bitcoin
An important time for a chart pack
After the Treasury announced its fourth quarter of 2023 issuance schedule two weeks ago, financial markets have reawakened. Around the time these charts were struck (approximately 9:00pm EST), the Chinese currency was flirting with its weakest level in fifteen years, a move itself that warranted an introductory section before throwing 18 charts at you.
The reason we picked today to strike charts across asset classes is not to merely put words to pictures. Rather, there are moves in foreign exchange at the moment that only happen when something major is either underway or about to occur. Essentially, we have just about concluded that the August 2nd Treasury announcement (TBL coverage) was a monumental shift in investor sentiment, and more importantly, the reality of the US fiscal picture. Some of these resistance and support levels are not going to hold—that’s where the drama truly begins.