Strategy Doesn’t Have to Unwind for Bitcoin to Recover
A fair look at Strategy's metric wars, STRC trading below par and what management can improve
Today’s letter is about Strategy, and while recent surveys showed this isn’t the most popular topic, I still consulted Nik and requested an extensive letter on it. He agreed and gave me the space to try to offer people another perspective on the company and its strategy.
The main reason this matters, in our opinion, is the possible implications for bitcoin and therefore for your portfolio. The recent bitcoin sell-off triggered STRC to trade below par and led a lot of people to question the viability of Strategy and its current playbook.
Last week’s X was full of opinions about the company, the playbook, and the executive chairman, Michael Saylor. They ranged from “dishonest, scammers, ponzi scheme” all the way to “Strategy needs to unwind first before the market can resume its way up again.”
That last claim is what triggered me to go over this with a new perspective. Because if that statement is true, it has big implications for the market and the price of bitcoin. But if it isn’t true and you’re counting on it, you could get sidelined.
As always, nobody knows what the future holds. We are here to give our perspective, and it’s up to you to decide whether it makes sense. It almost feels like politics, where people choose “sides” and go into full offensive or full defensive mode with little to no nuance. This letter is meant to look at both sides, include whatever is reasonable, and reject whatever isn’t. With that information, you come to your own conclusions.
But before we begin, and we will end on this note as well: there is no substitute for spot bitcoin in self-custody. Full stop.
