The Bitcoin Layer

The Bitcoin Layer

TBL Liquidity Indicator and Money Markets Update: TBL Weekly #161

Repo crisis doomers beware...

Augustine Carrasco's avatar
Augustine Carrasco
Oct 24, 2025
∙ Paid

Dear Readers,

This past week put our indicator to the test in real time, and we identified a signal misalignment, which several astute TBL Pros also noticed—thank you for keeping us accountable.

An important reminder before today’s article: this indicator remains a work in progress. We’re committed to adjusting it immediately if the signal is incorrect in any way, shape, or form. After all, your macro/financial research theses are our priority #1, which sets up a high-quality standard that we must abide by if we want to continue providing research value to all of our TBL Pros. As always, we are grateful for your loyalty and patience.

That said, where does our current liquidity outlook lie?


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TBL Liquidity Indicator

While we tirelessly work in the background to make our TBL Liquidity Indicator actionable in a live environment, the overall cycle itself still allows us to see short-term liquidity movements derived from our TBL Liquidity Index. From the looks of the smoothed blue line, we are on our way to the next short-term trough (perhaps in late November, depending on the price action in the components of our TBL Liquidity Index):

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