TBL Liquidity, US Rates, and More TBL Strategies: TBL Weekly #151
Dear Readers,
This past week was a busy one—not only in markets, given all the announcements and data that came out, but also for The Bitcoin Layer. As the last full month of the summer gets going here, we wanted to finish it off with a bang!
We are collaborating with Michael Howell and the Crossborder Capital team this month to bring our TBL Pros a co-written article on liquidity. Michael Howell will also join the panel in this month’s Live Q&A, so you can ask him questions yourself! Go to our Q&A Hub for the registration link:
Okay, but enough about us, let’s get to what you really came here for: our weekly analysis. One of the great things about TBL Liquidity is that, with a single metric, we cover a myriad of things happening in the overall macro environment; this is why we like to start our bitcoin analyses with TBL Liquidity—it works as an anchor point. Accordingly, today’s article will go over:
TBL Liquidity’s status
An analysis of the US rates component of TBL Liquidity
A strategy experiment using TBL Liquidity’s Quarterly Cycle
So, without further ado, let’s dive into TBL Weekly #151.
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Weekly Analysis
TBL Liquidity
Many of you have access to this daily-updated chart already through your TBL Dashboard, but to provide a little more context on the chart, our TBL Liquidity Index has been designed to show liquidity conducive environments when it lies above the 50-level:
As you can see, 2025 has remained above 50 (even throughout Liberation Day’s turmoil). In short, liquidity in the financial system has remained relatively ample throughout 2025 and has now reached somewhat of a plateau, bouncing between the 57-59 range since mid-June:
This has led to our TBL Quarterly Liquidity Cycle printing negative for the first time since late April (again, something you have access to in your TBL Dashboards on a daily basis) - note that we will also review a ‘buying’ strategy at the end of this article using the chart below:
