TBL Thinks: Big Beautiful Breakdown
Dear Readers,
It’s Thinking Time! This week we cover One Big Beautiful Bill and what it all means for the country. The Senate passed Trump’s megabill on Tuesday after an all-night session and an appearance from Vice President JD Vance to cast the tie-breaking vote. The bill will now go back to the House, with any changes requiring another Senate vote, as it races to meet Trump’s self-imposed July 4 deadline.
TBL Thinks is our way to summarize the most important paywalled, longer reads relevant to global macroeconomics, helping you cut through the noise. With that in mind, please enjoy.
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“A great bill. It has something for everyone.” - President Trump
The process of money creation goes through many steps and relies on multiple layers in the hierarchy of financial institutions. One of the key components of this process is the fiscal arm of the United States government, which in many ways underpins the existence of the US dollar as the denomination of global banking. At The Bitcoin Layer, we measure financial markets and the conditions guiding them by analyzing liquidity, or the grounds for credit creation. Credit creation doesn't always directly result in money, such as deposits (M2) or base money (Fed liabilities). For example, when the US government borrows and spends as it will continue to do for as far as the eye can see, the resulting credit creation (issuance of Treasuries) takes time to monetize. But monetize it eventually does, causing prices to rise.
Prices don't fall, at least on the aggregate, because of this condition. The public, not just in the United States but across the world, is simply used to this dynamic and doesn't foresee situations in which prices are allowed to fall. President Trump said it himself: Now is not the right time to get too aggressive on cuts.
