TBL Weekly #1

Introducing our weekly recap of The Bitcoin Layer posts and videos.

Jul 02, 2022

Welcome to our first TBL Weekly! This Saturday edition of The Bitcoin Layer will wrap the week’s content, provide valuation updates, and track any active market calls made by this publication.

Tuesday

Our bitcoin video for the week covered realized price—our favorite on-chain metric to measure bitcoin’s relative valuation. This explainer video introduces the basics of using bitcoin’s blockchain for insights:

Here is a look at bitcoin’s current price, realized price, and MVRV (market-value-to-realized-value) ratio:

Wednesday

We introduced our “economic cycle wayfinder,” a simple weighted average of our three favorite and most reliable leading economic indicators: ISM Manufacturing, University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment, and NFIB Small Business Optimism. Our cycle-approach to investing is also discussed:

The Bitcoin Layer

Economic Cycle Wayfinder

Dear readers, We’ve spent a lot of time covering the yield curve’s ability to predict an end to the economic cycle, but now we must use proper economic indicators to confirm or deny the thesis. With hundreds of indicators published monthly, how do we decide which ones to follow…

3 years ago · 14 likes · Nik Bhatia and Joe Consorti

Here’s our latest iteration of the wayfinder, now weighted so that 50 marks the expansion/contraction level just as PMI surveys do. The US economy is already in contraction:

Thursday

Our macro video for the week introduced the big idea for our YouTube channel—building out an entire investing framework with dozens of interacting components, including rates, bitcoin, economic analysis, price study, and so much more. Don’t miss the graphics and animations our team put together:

Thursday was our first double feature. Joe crushed this summary of the GBTC drama in short order Wednesday night after the news broke:

The Bitcoin Layer

GBTC spot ETF rejected, Grayscale sues SEC

Dear readers, On Monday, SEC Chair Gary Gensler stated that bitcoin was a commodity. Yesterday, the SEC rejected yet another spot bitcoin ETF…

3 years ago · 13 likes · Nik Bhatia and Joe Consorti

Friday

Yesterday, Nik delivered a timely chart pack, making an active call: US Treasury 10-year yields are heading back down to 2.5% due to a slowdown in growth and inflation expectations. Implications for bitcoin are also discussed:

The Bitcoin Layer

Independence Day chart pack: rates+bitcoin

Dear readers, As I strike these charts on a Thursday night for your Friday morning coffee, I can’t help but get the feeling that this is why I’m here. In my days on the trading desk, I’d come in bright and early, ready to pull down a bunch of charts, draw some squiggles, and send out a rapid fire picture+story commentary to anybody who dared to enter my invite-only “TRADES N HIP HOP” Bloomberg chat room. Guess what? It’s the same guy, same mentality, but just a different setting…

3 years ago · 8 likes · Nik Bhatia

Bitcoin price study

Here is our Fair Valuation Framework showing bitcoin’s price within the bands:

And our Fair Value Confluence price and Ratio, showing bitcoin that is trading at fair value:

Finally, a summary of where our most monitored bitcoin metrics stand:

Prices, metrics, and ratios are as of Friday, July 1, 2022.

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