TBL Weekly #11
Our weekly recap of The Bitcoin Layer posts, videos, and market analysis.
Bitcoin bounced 10% off the lows to end another week of choppy price action. Rates were also volatile, now adjusting to a Fed Funds rate of at least 3.5%.
Welcome to TBL Weekly #11, grab a coffee and dive into this week’s highlights.
Nik explained Bitcoin Dormancy, an extension of last week’s HODL Waves article. How can we use on-chain data to identify what price range marks the bitcoin bottom? Watch this informative video lecture to find out:
Nik analyzes the current bout of volatility, rates soaring past several key levels, and bitcoin teetering on a razor’s edge. Another can’t-miss global macro chart pack to help position your investment framework moving into a nerve-rattling Q4:
The Fed won’t pivot this year, but we’re likely in for a pause relatively soon. Nik explains our confidence in this monetary policy prediction in this short masterclass on Fed decisions:
One of the reasons the Fed won’t cut or ease yet is because the financial plumbing of the world is all still relatively intact.
Joe explains why bitcoin and the rest of crypto are of no equivalence. He conducts some price study and runs a linear regression (bitcoin versus crypto) to make that case. Despite a historically strong correlation, we have reason to believe that it is waning as these markets mature.
If you’ve been looking for a way to frame why bitcoin and shitcoins are fundamentally different, here’s your go-to reading material:
Special thanks to our Creative Director, Matthew Ball for once again knocking it out of the park with this thumbnail!
Here is our market analysis for the week ending Saturday, September 10th, 2022. The notable events in our Market Monitor are bitcoin’s 10% gain on the week, now above $21,000, continued widening between the 2-year Treasury yield and Fed Funds (this will decline by 75 basis points overnight on September 21), and a declining inverse-correlation between bitcoin and DXY as bitcoin rises despite persistent dollar strength. The TBL Fair Value Ratio trades slightly below one:
Our coupon for 33% off a Paid Annual Subscription ends in three days. This offer is available to new subscribers only, although monthly subscribers have reported success in canceling and re-subscribing after a day with the discount:
Next week, our eyes are fixated on Tuesday’s CPI release. Although the magnitude of the hike looks to be settled at 75 basis points thanks to a Fed-WSJ leak, another negative month-over-month print could diminish the terminal rate.
Have a great weekend everybody!
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