It was a busy, holiday-shortened week at The Bitcoin Layer. Catch up quickly right here in case you were off the desk, taking a summer holiday, and/or battling the insanity that seems to be any US domestic air travel.
Wednesday
Yes, we know, another post on the cycle. But we can’t stop focusing on it because it will dictate asset prices by way of rates markets and Fed policy. We break down the internals of our economic cycle monitor:
Reminder that an updated NFIB small business optimism survey is published this coming week. Expectations are for a decline to 92.5:
In this week’s solo video, I throw it back to 2018 and the beginning of my career as a bitcoin writer. How many of you have followed my work since “The Time Value of Bitcoin”? For those that have, my sincerest gratitude for sticking with me this whole time. For those that haven’t, here’s a video to explain my original Lightning Network thesis:
Friday
The bankruptcies, frauds, and liquidations across digital assets over the past three months have everyone on edge, and some are even nervous that this entire industry is a house of cards. Outside of unleveraged bitcoin, it certainly does seem so at times. Don’t miss our analysis of the saga, including the all-important “chain-of-events” point of view we provide:
Bitcoin price study
Here is our Fair Valuation Framework, showing bitcoin’s price is trying to claw back to realized price and its 200-week moving average:
And our Fair Value Confluence price and Ratio, showing bitcoin that is trading at fair value. We do not expect our Fair Value Ratio to stay below 1 for any extended period of time considering past bitcoin bear markets. It’s currently at 1.09:
Finally, a summary of where our most monitored bitcoin metrics stand. Is the worst price action behind us?
Prices, metrics, and ratios are as of Saturday, July 9, 2022.
Learn more about my Lighting-Network-focused YouTube sponsors, Zebedee and Voltage!
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