TBL Weekly #4
Our weekly recap of The Bitcoin Layer posts and videos.
This week saw a relief rally in bitcoin, alongside a precipitous fall in Treasury yields. Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer Weekly #4. Grab a coffee, and let’s dig in.
Nik and Joe tackled the notoriously misunderstood idea of inflation, how its definition has evolved, and why the global money supply is the real leading indicator you should be following.
Our YouTube channel is back online! Nik breaks down moves in interest rates to explain why the 8-month risk-off period in markets is ending. Must watch!
We asked the question on everyone’s mind: are the marginal bitcoin sellers finally exhausted? After the sale of 1% (₿236,237) of the circulating bitcoin supply in two months, clearing the underbrush of cryptocurrency scams in the process, we believe that bitcoin may be primed for a trend reversal:
Thank you to everybody that participated in yesterday’s Layered Money Q&A! Next Tuesday’s video will keep the audience participation train rolling, with our video featuring viewer-submitted questions.
Here is our market analysis for the week ending Saturday, July 23rd, 2022. Notable events in our Market Monitor include bitcoin crossing materially above realized price and the 200-week moving average—holding these valuation floors signals a strong cohort of buy pressure is entering the scene. Bitcoin saw an additional 4.6% to the upside over the S&P500 on the week, a decline in its inverse-correlation with DXY, and minor downside returns compared to the ETH/BTC pair:
Two more points as we close out today’s Weekly Update:
Our Wayfinder is firmly in contraction territory, as we wait for Thursday’s GDP print to see if a technical recession is declared and validates this model.
We have an active call for 2.5% in 10-year Treasury yields. This call was explicitly made on July 1st:
Enjoy your weekend, and buckle up for a major week of economic releases, with the highly anticipated GDP and the 75 basis point FOMC rate hike.