TBL Weekly #6

Our weekly recap of The Bitcoin Layer posts, videos, and market analysis for the upcoming week.

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Aug 06, 2022

Rate hikes will persist, but bitcoin prices don’t seem to mind anymore. The number of active calls by The Bitcoin Layer fell from one to zero this week after 10-year yields reached our target of 2.50% (2.51% to be exact). Welcome to The Bitcoin Layer Weekly #6!

Tuesday

This is the first edition of our Bond Market 101 series on YouTube. Nik discusses corporate finance basics, debt versus equity, and introduce US Treasuries and the difficult-to-grasp concept of duration. We promise you’ll learn something in this one:

Wednesday

Nik gives us a global macro update and predicts the Fed will be hiking rates once again in September:

The Bitcoin Layer

TBL's 2.5% 10-year Treasury target reached. Bitcoin establishes real support. Another hike in September.

Dear readers, Rates move quickly. But not as fast as bitcoin. Today’s post is a closer analysis of the price of each of our two worlds here at The Bitcoin Layer—rates and bitcoin. I also have a refined outlook for the rest of the year’s global macro scene. While Europe takes the month to holiday, Fed watchers prepare for a Jerome Powell speech at Jackson Hole toward the end of August…

3 years ago · 9 likes · Nik Bhatia

A Layered Money sighting at a Barcelona, Spain train station! The Spanish version, of course:

Bitcoin Gus (1 sat/∞) @Gus21MCalderon

⁦@timevalueofbtc⁩’s ‘Del Oro Al Bitcoin’ is the only book on #bitcoin at the Barcelona-Sants Train Station Bookstore … congrats to señor Nik! (Spain is early.)

Thursday

In this video, Nik summaries his post from Wednesday and gives reasons why the Fed should hike and why it should pause. Ultimately, he concludes that inflation by itself will cause the Fed to continue tightening monetary policy:

Friday

Joe breaks down the important dynamic between bitcoin and equites, including some crucial lead-lag analysis and market structure differences between the two asset classes. This was a valuable big-picture overview of how early we are in bitcoin:

The Bitcoin Layer

Bitcoin is telling us what the S&P 500 will do.

Dear readers, As a research provider, we bring you rates data paired with bitcoin price study and analysis—why do we do this? Apart from our fascination with bitcoin and our belief that it’s propelling itself towards world reserve currency status, it’s because…

3 years ago · 4 likes · Nik Bhatia and Joe Consorti

Market Analysis

Here is our market analysis for the week ending Saturday, August 6th, 2022. Notable events in our Market Monitor include materially slowing correlation between bitcoin and stocks and an enormous half percent inversion in the US Treasury yield curve:

Next week, we’ve got our eyes on CPI. Expectations are for a modest decline from last month’s reading of a 9.1% year-over-year increase. Look for an update from Nik on the ETH funeral watch.

Have a great weekend everybody!