The Quiet Period, Bitcoin hits $22,000
FOMC voters must remain out of the financial press for the next 10 days, a welcome respite from their unimaginative voices. The stage is set for their exit from hawkishness.
If you’ve been receiving these research and analysis letters for a while, you’ll know that I tend to strike a chart pack quite often. Habit is not the reason, neither is your expectation of price analysis from the publication on which you spend your hard earned dollars (or sats).
The main reason I chart is a fundamental desire to understand how a price is moving in order to search the mosaic for information to explain such moves. And thankfully, tomorrow marks the beginning of the Fed’s “Blackout Periods,” during which Fed speakers may not comment on monetary policy in the lead up to each FOMC meeting. With next meeting on February 1st, we’ll finally get a break from their babbling on about the hawks and the doves. Scant top-tier economic data releases during the quiet period lead me to believe that prices as they have settled today largely give us the playbook up until the FOMC statement is released.
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A look at the calendar of main events for the next two weeks in global macro.
What will the Fed do on February 1st?
Where are rates and policy rates going over the next few months?
The one chart left that leaves only questions and no answers.
Calendar of events
Let’s orient ourselves with the schedule of economic releases and Fed action for the next few weeks. Here are some key dates:
January 24th - US PMI data (an important release but not top tier, expected to again show that the US economy is in contraction)
January 27th - Personal Income and Personal Spending data (another important release for GDP projections, as Personal Spending is a directly related to the consumption component of GDP calculations)
January 31st - Case Shiller home price data (TBL’s favorite housing metric, expected to continue to show how deeply in trouble the US housing market is)
February 1st, 8:30am EST - ISM Manufacturing (the granddaddy of economic releases, but the timing of this data means that the Fed will likely have already made up their minds as the meeting actually begins the day before the statement)
February 1st, 2:00pm EST - FOMC statement (now all but guaranteed for a 25 basis point rate hike)