Dear Readers,
Forty hours on international flights lends to a lot of open thinking, as do the economic-focused conversations overseas themselves. If I’m being honest though, the open thinking started the evening of November 5th, when the American people forcefully decided to embark on a new direction.
Because we at The Bitcoin Layer are an independent research firm targeting all investors, our holistic geopolitical world view often doesn’t matter. However, as I write today, how I think geopolitical events play out over the next two years matters to markets more than ever. Each day that passes by, my imagination grows on what lies ahead, and I can promise you that the world is about to change.
This election wasn’t about going back and forth between left and right. It was a rejection of the Davos school, and a sweeping mandate for change. It gave Trump the authority to levy any tariff or penalty on counterpart nations, because he boldly campaigned to do so. The world is about to change, I reiterate, and while I can’t pretend to know what will happen to the price of bitcoin, the S&P 500, Treasury yields, and the US dollar, I have strong opinions which I would like to share with you today. These are the letters I starve to write, hoping my convictions get through to you, the loyal reader.
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My 2025 research docket
Bitcoin technical analysis
Bitcoin 12-month & 5-year price targets (UPDATED)
Models are destroyed
Donald Trump and the future of the United States of America
American Exceptionalism, Chevron, DOGE, and the US fiscal picture
Inflation outlook
Credit Machine is the single most important factor
National Capitalism by Russell Napier, Liquidity outlook from Michael Howell
Europe is in major trouble
China/BRICS