Trader notes
Dear Readers,
On a recent Virtual Q&A, I was asked for some analysis on trade setups. While Michael Howell understood that we don’t provide investment advice or trade ideas, he still wanted to know how I would approach risk setups. It’s a fine line, but I trust that readers are conducting their own due diligence when trading or allocating, and simply using TBL as a resource. In that spirit, let’s get into some trader notes, which most importantly include risk levels to be respected. This is a candlestick exercise, and one that I perform regularly to square my analysis.
A few weeks ago, I called for some trend exhaustion for Treasury bulls, likely to see a pullback to the 4% area in 10s. This morning’s (fake) jobs number and (real) wage gain sent yields higher, but entirely in the context of our proverbial “levels.” Therefore, today we bring you those levels across key asset classes that might help to inform your own trades by offering our own risk management levels.
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Risk management levels
Bitcoin
2s
10s
US dollar
S&P 500
It all appears to be the same trade
It always is, though. That’s what we’ve been trying to express through our research, whether it’s the modern TBL Liquidity model we’ve developed, or simply classic cross-asset correlation tracking, we know that no market exists in a silo.