Trader Notes: Watching for a Financial Crisis
Saylor activity, a dangerous DXY, US company earnings growth that will take your breath away, and long-term bitcoin price action and technical analysis.
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Dear Readers,
If you don’t enjoy the whipsaw, you’re probably reading the wrong newsletter.
The team asked me how I was doing on Friday, and while they haven’t experienced as many bitcoin cycles as I have, my answer probably surprised them a bit.
I said I was loving it.
Loving a 25% decline in the span of a few trading days? To be honest, yes, volatility, generally speaking, is personally thrilling. See, I’m a markets guy. There’s a sports guy who always knows the score and who is first place in the standings, there’s a politics guy who can name 90+ US Senators and the entire executive branch cabinet, and many more guys and ladies with specific angles of obsession. But just in the way that sports guy loves a Game 7 and politics guy loves election week, this guy loves volatility of any kind.
It doesn’t hurt that our TBL Liquidity Indicator flagged a confirmed SELL on May 14th when the bitcoin price was at $80,000. The cherry on top? Some of our loyal TBL Pros sent thank you messages for helping them time the market in some way.
Today’s letter discusses said volatility and how I’m ingesting it broadly, Michael Saylor, who must like volatility too, an exceedingly threatening US dollar index (DXY), and some thoughts on the AI revolution and why I don’t believe the S&P 500 is in any sort of bubble. Of course, we look at the bitcoin and S&P 500 price action for context after last week’s mayhem. Key levels are flagged.
A 54% edge for our TBL Liquidity Indicator followers over bitcoin this year warrants a pat on the back, but it also provides the opportunity to double down on liquidity’s influence on bitcoin, both backwards-looking and forward.
