Trump back to White House, implications for bitcoin and markets
Dear Readers,
There is no free lunch. Of all the economic lessons one can learn, this is perhaps the first to capture. I can relay this sentiment in a more tangible way: if the price of gold is $2,600 per ounce, and you come across a gold coin priced at $2,300, it is very unlikely to be a one-ounce pure gold coin. It might be 0.8 ounces, or it might be 80% pure, but there’s almost no chance it’s one pure ounce of gold. If it were, buying it at $2,300 would be considered a free lunch.
When it comes to prediction markets, I am fairly cynical. These markets are immature, yes, and barely and sporadically liquid. Nevertheless, the world is one global arbitrage opportunity, leading me to believe that Harris trades below 44 cents on the dollar for a good reason: she won’t win. If she had a chance, buying her contract only to cash in after the election would resemble a free lunch, of sorts. And I’m just not buying it. This letter won’t endorse Trump, but it won’t lament Harris’ political demise either—our goal today is to give you our thoughts on markets in a Trump world. What does it mean for Treasury yields, stocks, and bitcoin? I have some thoughts.
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