What I think & what I don’t know
Bitcoin, the halving, Treasury yields, Fed policy rates, and recession. I'll tell you what I think as well as my blind spots.
Dear readers,
Investing is mostly about managing blind spots. That’s why the general tendency is to lean towards diversification: spreading money across assets and asset classes just in case something goes wrong with one. By nature, blind spots are not visible, making identifying them infinitely more difficult. Nevertheless, I believe we should be identifying what we think and what we don’t know—it helps us realize how little we actually do know about the future and provides the proper humility for making global macroeconomic and financial market prognostications. Today, we can offer some humble yet bold predictions, with a side of hedged language.
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Bitcoin price
Why not start with the granddaddy of them all: the bitcoin price, and where I think it’s going. Bitcoin is an exponentially growing network, with an exponentially growing price:
