Where are the risk takers?
Why bitcoin futures, perps, and skew are still whispering bear market
Last week’s letter ended with a promise: dig into bitcoin futures and show why the basis trade looks bleak and represents bear market behavior.
You might want to get yourself a double espresso. This letter is going to be technical and ‘quant’ heavy, but in this age of agentic AI and instant gratification, it’s a good thing to challenge our brain once in a while.
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Announcement Board
Due to popular demand, Nik & Johan are hosting another live TBL Pulse walkthrough on Tuesday, June 2nd at 2:00 PM EST.
This webinar includes a special bonus to those who attend:
During the call, we will send out a one-page memo to all attendees discussing our most important charts from TBL Pulse and how we read their respective signals.
Free for everyone to attend.
This session will primarily focus on the bitcoin portion of our TBL Pulse dashboard, where both Nik and Johan will walk us through the latest Valuation & Trend research, which is the underlying framework for the State Quadrant chart:
