Where did you come from, where did you go?
Where did you come from, where did you go?
A credit contraction is coming. The implications are sizable. My updated 2023 outlook.
Dear readers,
Silicon Valley Bank collapsed on March 10th. By the time you read this, a fortnight still wouldn’t have passed. During this time period, I’ve come away with an updated view on the rest of 2023—one with more conviction as well as more caution. Forced to reevaluate my entire view on global markets coming off the rapid failure of four banks, today’s post is my most meaningful outlook adjustment of the past half-year.
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Fed hikes 25 basis points, but rates lead the Fed
Let’s first look explicitly at today’s FOMC statement. Here are the notable takeaways:
Inflation remained the primary concern, and the prospect of disinflation was not included.
A new second paragraph was added to the statement touting the resiliency of the banking system. The Fed has the stability of the banking system, and one would assume broader credit conditions, at front of mind.