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Wow this is a change of tone. Do you still insist there will be a recession in the near future or did you totally abandoned the idea? It really looks like the FED could achieve a soft landing, but something is off to me..this economic cycle really is something special. If you think about that since january 2020 around 80% of all USD in existence was printed, and more in two months than in the last 20 years, then it's no surprise that there is still enough liquidity/money available and risk apetite to pump the markets.
As you said this cycle is unlike any other, we believe it has to do with the monetary and fiscal bazooka that was let off in 2020 and 2021. The Fed's ability to engineer a soft landing has largely been a function of this, we believe, and as such recession timing becomes a lot more difficult. We're looking forward to late Q1 of next year when personal savings run out and BTFP is set to expire for more color on recession timing.
But I thought the world was going to end. Damn.
Wow this is a change of tone. Do you still insist there will be a recession in the near future or did you totally abandoned the idea? It really looks like the FED could achieve a soft landing, but something is off to me..this economic cycle really is something special. If you think about that since january 2020 around 80% of all USD in existence was printed, and more in two months than in the last 20 years, then it's no surprise that there is still enough liquidity/money available and risk apetite to pump the markets.
As you said this cycle is unlike any other, we believe it has to do with the monetary and fiscal bazooka that was let off in 2020 and 2021. The Fed's ability to engineer a soft landing has largely been a function of this, we believe, and as such recession timing becomes a lot more difficult. We're looking forward to late Q1 of next year when personal savings run out and BTFP is set to expire for more color on recession timing.
Thank you for answering. Love your work!